Sydney and Melbourne navigate the early stages of a downturn while the mid -sized capitals continue to break record highs
Cotality’s national home value index rose 0.7% in March , taking dwelling values 2.1% higher over the first quarter of the year. At the national level, the pace of gains is easing, reducing from a 2.8% increase in Q4 last year, but housing outcomes are increasingly diverse from city to city and across the pricing spectrum.
The mid -sized capitals, as well as Darwin, are all recording growth of 1.2% or more on a month -to – month basis, while Sydney and Melbourne navigate a subtle decline trend that has been evident since December last year.
“Since the end of November 2025, Melbourne values have retreated by – 0.9% and the Sydney market is down – 0.4%,” said Tim Lawless, Cotality’s research director. “The softer trend in values coincides with falling auction clearance rates and a pickup in advertised supply, providing buyers with more choice and less urgency at the negotiation table.”
At the other end of the spectrum, the trend in Perth home values is showing the opposite trend, accelerating in the face of higher interest rates and lower sentiment. Housing values across the western capital were up 2.5% in the month of March to be 7.3% higher over the quarter.
“In dollar terms, the 7.3% rise in Perth home values over the quarter has added approximately $69,000 to the median dwelling value,” Mr Lawless said. “Clearly this pace of growth is unsustainable, but continues to be supported by low supply, with advertised stock levels tracking about 40% below the five – year average for this time of the year.”
Conditions are also diverging across the broad value tiers, with lower quartile markets leading the pace. This trend is evident across every capital except Hobart and Canberra, but most pronounced in Sydney where upper quartile dwelling values have fallen by 1.8% through the March quarter while lower quartile values are 1.8% higher.
“Strength across the lower quartile value tier is tied to increased competition for lower priced housing,” Mr Lawless said. “Serviceability constraints are deflecting buyer demand towards the lower end of the market, competing with a pickup in first home buyers taking advantage of stimulus and elevated levels of investor
activity.”
Regional markets are showing some resilience to the slowdown , with values rising 1.1% over the month and 3.3% over the quarter, compared with 0.6% month on month and 1.8% quarter on quarter rises across the capital cities. Similar to the strength in Perth, Regional WA stands out with the strongest capital gains. Values are up 2.2% in March to be 6.2% higher over the quarter.
“WA’s Bunbury is leading the pace of gains, with values jumping 8.4% through the March quarter to be 22.2% higher over the past 12 months,” according to Mr Lawless.
There are some early signs of an easing in purchasing demand, with Cotality’s estimate of quarterly home sales tracking 1.9% lower than a year ago and 5.6% down on the five – year average. Given the likelihood of a further rise in cost – of-living pressures and interest rates, alongside a drop in confidence as conflict in the Middle East extends, it’s likely that purchasing demand
Index results as at 31st March 2026 Change in dwelling values
Month Quarter Annual Total return Median value
Sydney – 0.1% – 0.2% 4.8% 8.0% $1,295,387
Melbourne – 0.2% – 0.6% 3.4% 6.9% $828,249
Brisbane 1.8% 5.1% 19.0% 23.0% $1,101,151
Adelaide 1.2% 3.6% 11.4% 15.4% $937,021
Perth 2.5% 7.3% 24.3% 29.3% $1,017,698
Hobart 0.8% 2.5% 7.8% 12.4% $737,742
Darwin 1.6% 3.4% 19.7% 27.3% $618,596
Canberra 0.4% 1.4% 6.1% 10.5% $892,800
Combined capitals 0.6% 1.8% 9.3% 12.9% $1,025,365
Combined regional 1.1% 3.3% 11.7% 16.6% $758,788
National 0.7% 2.1% 9.9% 13.7% $933,137
Change in dwelling values over key time period
Geography From peak Peak date Past 5 years March quarter 2026
Sydney – 0.4% Nov – 25 25.4% – 0.2%
Melbourne – 1.3% Mar – 22 8.5% – 0.6%
Brisbane <at peak> 85.3% 5.1%
Adelaide <at peak> 79.0% 3.6%
Perth <at peak> 91.2% 7.3%
Hobart – 2.9% Mar – 22 23.0% 2.5%
Darwin <at peak> 35.5% 3.4%
Canberra – 0.8% May – 22 22.4% 1.4%
Regional NSW <at peak> 40.9% 2.4%
Regional Vic <at peak> 24.7% 1.8%
Regional Qld <at peak> 73.8% 4.0%
Regional SA <at peak> 76.5% 4.2%
Regional WA <at peak> 89.9% 6.2%
Regional Tas <at peak> 43.4% 5.2%
Combined capitals <at peak> 36.5% 1.8%
Combined regionals <at peak> 3.0% 3.3%
National <at peak> 40.2% 2.1
