Understanding seasonal market cycles
The property market is influenced not only by interest rates, lending policies and economic conditions, but also by the seasons. For homeowners, understanding these cycles is essential when planning to sell, buy, or invest.
Spring: Peak activity
Spring traditionally sees the highest level of market activity. Gardens look their best, daylight hours are longer, and families often try to move before the end of the school year. This results in more listings and heightened buyer competition. Sellers may achieve premium results, though increased supply can sometimes balance out demand.
Summer: Selective opportunities
In many regions, the market slows during the summer holiday period. Buyers are distracted by travel, festivities and school holidays. However, serious buyers remain active, and reduced competition can create opportunities for both buyers and sellers. Coastal and holiday locations often experience stronger demand at this time.
Autumn: Strong second wave
Autumn is considered the second-best selling season after spring. The weather is still pleasant, gardens remain appealing, and families who delayed decisions earlier in the year often re-enter the market. With fewer properties available compared to spring, sellers may benefit from more concentrated buyer interest.
Winter: Quieter but strategic
Winter usually records the lowest sales volumes. Shorter days, colder weather and less appealing outdoor presentation can deter casual buyers. However, this can be an advantage for motivated sellers, as serious buyers face limited choice and may act quickly. Homes with strong heating, insulation and natural light stand out in this period.
What homeowners should consider
Timing a sale around seasonal cycles can improve results, but it should not be the sole factor. Economic trends, local supply levels, and personal circumstances often carry more weight. Homeowners should also consider how their property presents in different conditions – a lush garden may be a spring asset, while a warm and well-insulated interior could be a winter highlight.
Long-term perspective
Over time, seasonal differences even out. A quality home, priced correctly and well marketed, will sell in any season. However, knowing how market cycles affect buyer behaviour helps homeowners choose the right timing and marketing strategy.
Understanding seasonal market cycles is about more than predicting busier months. It is about aligning your property’s strengths with buyer expectations and making informed decisions. Whether you sell in spring’s peak or winter’s lull, the right preparation and advice can ensure a strong result.
Talk to a First National Real Estate agent about the nuances of your particular property to work out the best strategy for you.
Housing market shifts highlight affordability divide
Australia’s housing market recorded another month of mixed conditions in August, according to the latest Cotality Housing Value Index.
Nationally, dwelling values rose modestly over the 30 days to 31 August, with the strongest gains continuing to cluster in larger capital cities. Regional markets saw smaller movements, reflecting a cooling trend after several years of rapid growth.
Sydney and Brisbane led the monthly increases, though the pace of growth remains slower than earlier in the year. Melbourne and Adelaide continued to register steady gains, supported by population growth and relatively affordable price points compared with the other capitals. Perth also maintained momentum, buoyed by interstate migration and a tight rental market. In contrast, Hobart values eased slightly, signalling affordability constraints and limited buyer demand. Darwin showed only minor movement, while Canberra’s market stabilised after earlier declines.
The Index shows that affordability pressures remain acute. Median values in Sydney and Melbourne are now well beyond the reach of many first home buyers. Rising interest rates over the past two years have intensified borrowing costs, with monthly repayments at record highs relative to household incomes. For homeowners, the latest results underline the strength of equity growth in most markets, but for aspiring buyers, the gap between incomes and dwelling values continues to widen.
Rental markets remain under significant strain. Vacancy rates in all capitals sit well below long-term averages, pushing advertised rents higher. Investors have seen gross rental yields improve slightly as rents rise faster than dwelling values, particularly in Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide. However, elevated borrowing costs continue to limit investor participation, even in cities where rental demand far outpaces supply. For homeowners, the August results represent further consolidation of gains accumulated through the first half of 2025. For investors, rising rents are offsetting weaker capital growth prospects in some cities, though affordability concerns are constraining tenant capacity to absorb higher rents. For first home buyers, the data highlights the persistence of entry barriers, especially in Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra.
The broader picture is one of divergence. Larger capitals with strong economic and population inflows continue to post growth, while smaller cities and some regional areas are flattening or edging backwards. This suggests the national market is unlikely to see uniform outcomes over the remainder of 2025. Instead, local economic conditions, rental supply and affordability constraints will play a greater role in shaping performance.
Homeowners and investors may view the latest data as evidence of resilience, but affordability remains the central issue for first home buyers. Policymakers and market participants alike will need to consider how supply constraints and borrowing costs interact with ongoing demand pressures.
If you’re in need of property advice, find your nearest First National Real Estate member at www.firstnational.com.au
Monthly change in capital city home values
MONTHLY ANNUAL
Sydney 0.8 % 2.1 %
Melbourne 0.3 % 1.4 %
Brisbane 1.2 % 7.9 %
Adelaide 0.9 % 6.5 %
Perth 1.1 % 6.6 %
Hobart -0.2 % 2.6 %
Darwin 1.0 % 10.2 %
Canberra 0.4 % 1.6 %
National 0.7 % 3.7 %
Sustainability shapes demand
Sustainability is no longer a niche interest. It is now a decisive factor for many homebuyers. With energy bills rising, buyers increasingly weigh the environmental performance of a property alongside its location and style.
Key features at the top of buyers’ lists include solar panels, battery storage, rainwater tanks and double glazing. Energy-efficient appliances, insulation and modern heating and cooling systems are also highly valued. For many, these elements are not simply about comfort, but about reducing ongoing costs and safeguarding future resale value.
Buyers are also drawn to properties that demonstrate a thoughtful use of materials. Homes built or renovated with recycled timber, low-VOC paints, and sustainable landscaping practices stand out. Indoor air quality and natural light have also become important considerations for families.
For homeowners thinking of selling, small steps can make a difference. Switching to LED lighting, installing smart meters, and adding draught-proofing are relatively inexpensive improvements that enhance a home’s appeal. Larger upgrades, such as rooftop solar, deliver even greater returns.
The message is clear: buyers want homes that are efficient, comfortable and future-ready.
